Why just be contrarian when you can bet against consensus and be right? Through a meta-analysis of what moves markets and what drives human behavior, New York Times bestselling author and founder of Verdad Advisers, Daniel Rasmussen cuts through the 60/40 portfolio, exposing where empirical evidence shows the best opportunities?and where projections, models, and experts often fail?to create an asset allocation that can withstand the tests of time. In this exploration of intellectual truths in investing, Dan?s research shows that the investor?s edge lies in fundamentals over forecasts, humility over hubris, and demonstrated rules over dogma.